Skip to main content

Conventional wisdom suggests there are two distinct elements of modern campaigns: the “ground game,” the ability of campaigns to organize and mobilize supporters to get out and engage in the fight; and the “air war,” the money poured into advertising and other passive means of persuading voters to support a campaign. Finding the elusive balance between the two is said to be the key to winning.

In this latest round in battle over comprehensive immigration reform, the anti-immigrant establishment has largely conceded the ground game. One reason: their base of support evaporated.

As IREHR documented last year in Beyond FAIR: The Decline of the Established Anti-Immigrant Organizations and the Rise of Tea Party Nativism, the grassroots base of the anti-immigrant establishment evaporated almost as quickly as it emerged, with nearly all of the local nativist groups now gone. Many hopped on the Tea Party bandwagon, instead. Some ended up in legal trouble. Other longtime activists, like California Coalition for Immigration Reform stalwart Barbara Coe, have died.

At the same time the grassroots have died, national anti-immigrant outfits are also seeing their membership support-base wither.  For example, recently released data obtained by IREHR indicates that the membership base of FAIR, the oldest and arguably most influential nativist group in the country, has declined to the lowest level since the group’s early days. At its height in 2007, FAIR’s donor list contained 45,000 individuals who had contributed to the organization during the previous 24 months. By 2011, that number fell to 18,848. In 2012, it dropped to 13,557. As of August 2013, FAIR’s 24-month donor list shriveled to just 10,266. That is a 77% decline from 2007, and a 24% drop from just last year. It is also nearly 5,000 fewer members than the organization had back in 1985. [1] FAIR’s 12-month donor list also declined from 6,701 in 2012 to 5,603 today, a 16% deterioration.

Moreover, the few events that nativist groups managed to organize this year flopped, with the lack of attendance often receiving more media attention than their message.

Unlike in 2007, when the anti-immigrant establishment relied on the presence of the grassroots ground game to kill the McCain-Kennedy comprehensive immigration reform package, this time they’ve had to fall back on the well-worn AstroTurf-style air war strategy.

Thus far in 2013, three of the most established and interconnected anti-immigrant outfits, FAIR, NumbersUSA, and Californians for Population Stabilization, have been filling the airwaves with nativist advertisements.

As of September 1, combined the three groups ran at least 1868 television ads in seventeen states. Federal Communications Commission ad spending records show combined spending of $1,174,270 on those ads: $592,320 by NumbersUSA, $479,150 by FAIR, and $102,800 by Californians for Population Stabilization.[2]

Each group’s ads played a role in a larger campaign to defeat the bill. FAIR’s thirty-second television spots repeatedly tried to inject “amnesty” into the conversation by centering on the “broken promises” of the 1986 immigration reform law. The NumbersUSA online ads cast immigration reform as a shady backroom deal, asking what legislators were “getting in exchange for selling out on amnesty for 11 million illegal aliens.” And the Californians for Population Stabilization ads were the most blatantly xenophobic, asking viewers if “Adding 33 Million More Foreign Workers and $6.3 Trillion in Welfare for Illegal Aliens is Their Idea of Immigration Reform.”

The most money poured into Ohio ($145,300), followed by Pennsylvania ($129,950), Florida ($128,700), Indiana ($116,545), and Wisconsin ($104,700), rounding out the top five.  Top five cities included: Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, and Tampa.

MAP: The Anti-Immigrant “Air War” – By Dollars Spent

See APPENDIX for Full Details of All 2013 Nativist Establishment Television Ad Spending.

Top five states by the number of spots run are: Wisconsin (307), Ohio (242), Pennsylvania (220), Kentucky (185), and Florida (154). Top five cities by the number of spots run include: Milwaukee (307), Cincinnati (242), Pittsburgh (220), Louisville (185), and Indianapolis (143).

MAP: The Anti-Immigrant “Air War” – By Ad Spots Run

In addition to television spots and radio ads, NumbersUSA launched statewide online ad “blitzes” in ten states: Alaska, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, and Vermont. FAIR also stepped up its national online ad buys, including ads that appeared on popular progressive websites like Talkingpointsmemo.com.

Of the 1,868 television ad spots, the vast majority of the television ads, 1,561, ran in the run up to the Senate vote on comprehensive immigration reform. The ad “blitz” failed to defeat the bill in the Senate, which passed it 68-32 on June 27, but it may have succeeded in encouraging Senators to laden the bill with a costly and counter-productive increases in border militarization.

Just 308 television ads have been scheduled after the Senate vote, though more ads will air in the fall. On August 6, FAIR announced the roll out a new phase of their “Seven-Figure TV and Radio Ad Campaign against Massive Immigration Increases and Amnesty.”

Domination of the airwaves is not going unchallenged. Through June, groups supporting immigration reform have spent $2,328,180 on 2,496 television ads, according to the Atlas Project. A diverse group including the AFL-CIO, SEIU COPE, Americans for a Conservative Direction, Workers Voice, Republicans for Immigration Reform, the California Endowment, Mi Familia Vota, Casa De Maryland, and Citizenship Now ran ads in key markets across the country.

Despite pro-immigrant forces winning the August recess organizing battle and outspending the nativist establishment two to one on ads, it may all be for not. Republicans in Congress continue to signal that they will delay any discussion of immigration reform and that they will employ the “death by a thousand cuts” strategy should it ever come up. House Judiciary Chair Bob Goodlatte (R-VA) has repeatedly rejected any “special path to citizenship” even for the DREAMers.

The nativist establishment has already turned their attention towards 2014, and they are preparing several different lines of attack.

APPENDIX: Nativist Television Ads January – September 2013

Dates

Nativist

Station

City

State

Amount

Spots

April 9 – April 14, 2013

NumbersUSA

KTUU

Anchorage

Alaska

$35,150

36

April 1 – April 14, 2013

NumbersUSA

KTVA

Anchorage

Alaska

$2,200

34

March 23, 2013

NumbersUSA

KTVA

Anchorage

Alaska

$1,870

1

March 14 – March 31, 2013

CAPS

KNXV-TV

Phoenix

Arizona

$22,400

32

March 14 – March 31, 2013

CAPS

KPHO

Phoenix

Arizona

$27,000

33

March 14 – March 29, 2013

CAPS

KSAZ

Phoenix

Arizona

$12,000

24

May 27 – June 9, 2013

FAIR

WTVT

Tampa

Florida

$5,300

7

May 25 – May 31, 2013

CAPS

WESH

Winter Park

Florida

$11,900.00

13

May 23 – June 2, 2013

CAPS

WFLA-TV

Tampa

Florida

$16,100

20

May 22 – June 23, 2013

CAPS

WKMG

Orlando

Florida

$5,500

8

may 20 – May 31, 2013

CAPS

WTVT

Tampa

Florida

$7,900

11

june 6 -June 9, 2013

FAIR

WTVT

Tampa

Florida

$5,300

7

June 3 – June 30, 2013

FAIR

WFLA-TV

Tampa

Florida

$27,800

34

June 3 – June 16, 2013

FAIR

WFLA-TV

Tampa

Florida

$12,000

15

June 17 – June 23, 2013

FAIR

WKMG

Orlando

Florida

$5,500

8

June 17 – June 21, 2013

FAIR

WTVT

Tampa

Florida

$10,500

13

June 17 – June 21, 2013

FAIR

WESH

Winter Park

Florida

$20,900

18

August 5 – August 8, 2013

FAIR

WLS-TV

Chicago

Illinois

$1,100

1

May 25 – May 31, 2013

NumbersUSA

WTHR-TV

Indianapolis

Indiana

$41,050

39

May 25 – June 2, 2013

NumbersUSA

WXIN-TV

Indianapolis

Indiana

$19,225

30

June 3 – June 9, 2013

FAIR

WTHR-TV

Indianapolis

Indiana

$18,750

20

June 3 – June 16, 2013

FAIR

WXIN-TV

Indianapolis

Indiana

$9,350

21

June 3 – June 14, 2013

FAIR

WTHR-TV

Indianapolis

Indiana

$28,200

33

May 31 – June 6, 2013

FAIR

WAVE-TV

Louisville

Kentucky

$10,255

34

May 27 – June 14, 2013

FAIR

WLKY-TV

Louisville

Kentucky

$16,750

31

May 25 – May 31, 2013

NumbersUSA

WHAS

Louisville

Kentucky

$11,175

27

May 25 – May 31, 2013

NumbersUSA

WLKY-TV

Louisville

Kentucky

$20,600

32

May 25 – June 2, 2013

NumbersUSA

WAVE-TV

Louisville

Kentucky

$8,100

27

June 3 – June 9, 2013

FAIR

WHAS

Louisville

Kentucky

$6,725

14

June 3 – June 30, 2013

FAIR

WLKY-TV

Louisville

Kentucky

$10,350

20

May 25 – May 31, 2013

NumbersUSA

KMBC-TV

Kansas City

Missouri

$28,375

31

May 25 – May 31, 2013

NumbersUSA

KMBC-TV

Kansas City

Missouri

$29,175

32

May 26 – June 3, 2013

NumbersUSA

KLAS-TV

Las Vegas

Nevada

$29,750

38

May 20 – June 23, 2013

NumbersUSA

KTNV

Las Vegas

Nevada

$15,350

27

May 27 – June 30, 2013

FAIR

WSOC-TV

Charlotte

North Carolina

$11,400

11

May 25 – May 31, 2013

NumbersUSA

WXII

Winston-Salem

North Carolina

$13,800

25

June 4 – June 7, 2013

FAIR

WSOC-TV

Charlotte

North Carolina

$3,000

5

June 4 – June 7, 2013

FAIR

WSOC-TV

Charlotte

North Carolina

$8,600

9

May 31 – June 14, 2013

FAIR

WXIX

Cincinnati

Ohio

$16,400

33

May 27 – June 13, 2013

FAIR

WLWT

Cincinnati

Ohio

$8,525

12

May 25 – June 2, 2013

NumbersUSA

WKRC

Cincinnati

Ohio

$22,775

40

May 25 – June 2, 2013

NumbersUSA

WLWT

Cincinnati

Ohio

$25,250

34

May 20 – June 2, 2013

NumbersUSA

WXIX

Cincinnati

Ohio

$11,150

21

June 4 – June 14, 2013

FAIR

WKRC

Cincinnati

Ohio

$15,200

26

June 3 – June 9, 2013

FAIR

WKRC

Cincinnati

Ohio

$9,750

15

June 3 – June 23, 2013

FAIR

WLWT

Cincinnati

Ohio

$10,050

15

June 3 – June 23, 2013

FAIR

WKRC

Cincinnati

Ohio

$26,200

46

May 25 – May 31, 2013

NumbersUSA

WPXI-TV

Pittsburgh

Pennsylvania

$14,250

28

May 25 – May 31, 2013

NumbersUSA

KDKA-TV

Pittsburgh

Pennsylvania

$21,050

33

May 25 – May 31, 2013

NumbersUSA

WTAE

Pittsburgh

Pennsylvania

$23,400

33

May 20 – June 23, 2013

NumbersUSA

WPXI-TV

Pittsburgh

Pennsylvania

$14,250

28

June 3 – June 9, 2013

FAIR

KDKA-TV

Pittsburgh

Pennsylvania

$13,250

21

June 3 – June 30, 2013

FAIR

WPXI-TV

Pittsburgh

Pennsylvania

$6,625

13

June 3 – June 14, 2013

FAIR

WPXI-TV

Pittsburgh

Pennsylvania

$12,975

24

June 3 – June 14, 2013

FAIR

KDKA-TV

Pittsburgh

Pennsylvania

$21,650

35

June 10 – June 14, 2013

FAIR

WPGH-TV

Pittsburgh

Pennsylvania

$2,500

5

February 27 – March 29, 2013

NumbersUSA

WYFF

Greenville

South Carolina

$64,900

52

February 25 – March 17, 2013

NumbersUSA

WSPA-TV

Spartanburg

South Carolina

$33,150

52

May 27 – June 25, 2013

FAIR

WSMV

Nashville

Tennessee

$9,075

15

June 22- June 25, 2013

FAIR

WKRN-TV

Nashville

Tennessee

$7,470

15

May 23 – May 26, 2013

NumbersUSA

KDAF-TV

Dallas

Texas

$37,200

45

May 26 – May 31, 2013

NumbersUSA

KSTU

Salt Lake City

Utah

$10,575

22

May 26 – May 31, 2013

NumbersUSA

KSTU

Salt Lake City

Utah

$10,875

24

May 20 – June 23, 2013

NumbersUSA

KLAS-TV

Salt Lake City

Utah

$19,575

28

May 20 – June 23, 2013

NumbersUSA

KUTV

Salt Lake City

Utah

$28,100

21

February 3 – February 10, 2013

FAIR

WJLA

Arlington

Virginia

$3,000

4

August 7 – September 2, 2013

FAIR

WDJT-TV

Milwaukee

Wisconsin

$24,850

95

August 7 – September 2, 2013

FAIR

WTMJ-TV

Milwaukee

Wisconsin

$30,925

106

August 5 – September 8, 2013

FAIR

WISN

Milwaukee

Wisconsin

$48,925

106

Notes

[1]. Mary Lou & John Tanton: A Journey into American Conservation, p 54.

[2]. FEC Data from Top 50 Television Markets – data not available for TV ads in Montana, North Dakota, and West Virginia that FAIR had promoted.

Devin Burghart

is president and executive director of IREHR. He has researched, written, and organized on virtually all facets of contemporary white nationalism since 1992, and is internationally recognized for this effort. Devin is frequently quoted as an expert by print, broadcast, and online media outlets. In 2007, he was awarded a Petra Foundation fellowship.