Air War: The Anti-Immigrant Establishment’s Battle Plan

Conventional wisdom suggests there are two distinct elements of modern campaigns: the “ground game,” the ability of campaigns to organize and mobilize supporters to get out and engage in the fight; and the “air war,” the money poured into advertising and other passive means of persuading voters to support a campaign. Finding the elusive balance between the two is said to be the key to winning.

In this latest round in battle over comprehensive immigration reform, the anti-immigrant establishment has largely conceded the ground game. One reason: their base of support evaporated.

As IREHR documented last year in Beyond FAIR: The Decline of the Established Anti-Immigrant Organizations and the Rise of Tea Party Nativism, the grassroots base of the anti-immigrant establishment evaporated almost as quickly as it emerged, with nearly all of the local nativist groups now gone. Many hopped on the Tea Party bandwagon, instead. Some ended up in legal trouble. Other longtime activists, like California Coalition for Immigration Reform stalwart Barbara Coe, have died.

At the same time the grassroots have died, national anti-immigrant outfits are also seeing their membership support-base wither.  For example, recently released data obtained by IREHR indicates that the membership base of FAIR, the oldest and arguably most influential nativist group in the country, has declined to the lowest level since the group’s early days. At its height in 2007, FAIR’s donor list contained 45,000 individuals who had contributed to the organization during the previous 24 months. By 2011, that number fell to 18,848. In 2012, it dropped to 13,557. As of August 2013, FAIR’s 24-month donor list shriveled to just 10,266. That is a 77% decline from 2007, and a 24% drop from just last year. It is also nearly 5,000 fewer members than the organization had back in 1985. [1] FAIR’s 12-month donor list also declined from 6,701 in 2012 to 5,603 today, a 16% deterioration.

Moreover, the few events that nativist groups managed to organize this year flopped, with the lack of attendance often receiving more media attention than their message.

Unlike in 2007, when the anti-immigrant establishment relied on the presence of the grassroots ground game to kill the McCain-Kennedy comprehensive immigration reform package, this time they’ve had to fall back on the well-worn AstroTurf-style air war strategy.

Thus far in 2013, three of the most established and interconnected anti-immigrant outfits, FAIR, NumbersUSA, and Californians for Population Stabilization, have been filling the airwaves with nativist advertisements.

As of September 1, combined the three groups ran at least 1868 television ads in seventeen states. Federal Communications Commission ad spending records show combined spending of $1,174,270 on those ads: $592,320 by NumbersUSA, $479,150 by FAIR, and $102,800 by Californians for Population Stabilization.[2]

Each group’s ads played a role in a larger campaign to defeat the bill. FAIR’s thirty-second television spots repeatedly tried to inject “amnesty” into the conversation by centering on the “broken promises” of the 1986 immigration reform law. The NumbersUSA online ads cast immigration reform as a shady backroom deal, asking what legislators were “getting in exchange for selling out on amnesty for 11 million illegal aliens.” And the Californians for Population Stabilization ads were the most blatantly xenophobic, asking viewers if “Adding 33 Million More Foreign Workers and $6.3 Trillion in Welfare for Illegal Aliens is Their Idea of Immigration Reform.”

The most money poured into Ohio ($145,300), followed by Pennsylvania ($129,950), Florida ($128,700), Indiana ($116,545), and Wisconsin ($104,700), rounding out the top five.  Top five cities included: Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, and Tampa.

MAP: The Anti-Immigrant “Air War” – By Dollars Spent

See APPENDIX for Full Details of All 2013 Nativist Establishment Television Ad Spending.

Top five states by the number of spots run are: Wisconsin (307), Ohio (242), Pennsylvania (220), Kentucky (185), and Florida (154). Top five cities by the number of spots run include: Milwaukee (307), Cincinnati (242), Pittsburgh (220), Louisville (185), and Indianapolis (143).

MAP: The Anti-Immigrant “Air War” – By Ad Spots Run

In addition to television spots and radio ads, NumbersUSA launched statewide online ad “blitzes” in ten states: Alaska, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, and Vermont. FAIR also stepped up its national online ad buys, including ads that appeared on popular progressive websites like Talkingpointsmemo.com.

Of the 1,868 television ad spots, the vast majority of the television ads, 1,561, ran in the run up to the Senate vote on comprehensive immigration reform. The ad “blitz” failed to defeat the bill in the Senate, which passed it 68-32 on June 27, but it may have succeeded in encouraging Senators to laden the bill with a costly and counter-productive increases in border militarization.

Just 308 television ads have been scheduled after the Senate vote, though more ads will air in the fall. On August 6, FAIR announced the roll out a new phase of their “Seven-Figure TV and Radio Ad Campaign against Massive Immigration Increases and Amnesty.”

Domination of the airwaves is not going unchallenged. Through June, groups supporting immigration reform have spent $2,328,180 on 2,496 television ads, according to the Atlas Project. A diverse group including the AFL-CIO, SEIU COPE, Americans for a Conservative Direction, Workers Voice, Republicans for Immigration Reform, the California Endowment, Mi Familia Vota, Casa De Maryland, and Citizenship Now ran ads in key markets across the country.

Despite pro-immigrant forces winning the August recess organizing battle and outspending the nativist establishment two to one on ads, it may all be for not. Republicans in Congress continue to signal that they will delay any discussion of immigration reform and that they will employ the “death by a thousand cuts” strategy should it ever come up. House Judiciary Chair Bob Goodlatte (R-VA) has repeatedly rejected any “special path to citizenship” even for the DREAMers.

The nativist establishment has already turned their attention towards 2014, and they are preparing several different lines of attack.

APPENDIX: Nativist Television Ads January – September 2013